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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-07🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b86fdaeb

Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 Runs Scored

Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins

-175risk0.22u→win0.13u
WIN

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-175

Closing

-155

CLV

-4.48%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +35.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +35.8pt EV vs implied
  • 100.0% over last 15 games
  • Bayesian-shrunk to 95.2%

Line movement

-175-155+0.07 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-155
1.6452
Delta
-4.48%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1744
UUID894d28c4-b2f1-48dd-b7d8-13d682c00925
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-07 20:43 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 16:50 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb86fdaebd9d65a020e29b61ad2092d799440b165ee7bf23ca8347cd166c07692
Closing line-155 captured 2026-08-07 21:49 UTC
CLV delta-4.48%
Closing hash3f9c6728761cc366d37944d265e122cb77d919c2ecb5857fa02dde6cfeb32b39

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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