Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-15🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 565bee58

Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 Total Bases

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Atlanta Braves

-180risk0.22u→win0.12u
WIN

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-180

Closing

-170

CLV

-2.06%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +35.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +35.1pt EV vs implied
  • 100.0% over last 15 games
  • 10 days off. MLB rust pattern; SP K-rate and batter contact both regress on first game back.

Line movement

-180-170+0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
38
Settled
38
Hit rate
57.9%
22-16
ROI
-9.70%
-0.56u
CLV avg
-0.11%
n=36
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (38 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
-2.06%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1781
UUID9bd85e34-2ecc-452e-afea-8e9180dc2b41
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-15 15:04 UTC
Graded2026-08-16 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash565bee5820c7889081dea9341133a25f004a96df1dfd0cbc8e53d247a987582b
Closing line-170 captured 2026-08-15 21:52 UTC
CLV delta-2.06%
Closing hashba004e0f94aefd3688e18c27ebc53a57d50825e2b13531d59b7027d121e168c1

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger96.1% hashed
    981 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close58.3% closed
    981 settled picks · 58.3% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public0 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801