Courtney Williams Over 4.5 Rebounds
Portland Fire @ Minnesota Lynx
Edge
Empirical 76.9% over last 13 games vs 63.6% implied → +11.5pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 13 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +11.5pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #8 vs this prop (-0.4% vs league avg over 123 games)
- 76.9% over last 13 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1175
UUID9ce64e49-321b-47c5-a7cf-5999cd489615
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-15 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-16 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash30c9871ba4add727c058f55de37eafa3ce4db9288c831235608f0794f5090c45
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Why this receipt is trustable
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