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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-16🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e7d936b5

Xavier Edwards Under 0.5 Runs Scored

Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds

-175risk0.22u→win0.13u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-175

Closing

-175

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +35.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: de8d06)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Miami Marlins7
Cincinnati Reds1
Winner: Miami Marlins · 2026-08-16
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1788
UUIDb5db56ed-2246-405c-9325-06afd95b327c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-16 14:18 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 16:03 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe7d936b5497fab93678ad1c2f784d083c62a35a8618a55a3fd97b0e021748133
Closing line-175 captured 2026-08-16 16:11 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash78f44f1225ab4f5287c3ebe6564620ec373da605823c718b7aecb2cca917e0dd

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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