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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-13🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED a078c29e

Royce Lewis Over 0.5 Hits

Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins

-168risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-168

Closing

-211

CLV

+8.23%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.7% implied → +17.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #20 vs this prop (-5.5% vs league avg over 157 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-168-211-0.12 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
9
Settled
9
Hit rate
55.6%
5-4
ROI
-10.51%
-0.12u
CLV avg
+1.47%
n=8
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (9 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-168
1.5952
Closing
-211
1.4739
Delta
+8.23%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1775
UUIDf3139399-0c45-4d8f-99a4-988a5a745924
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-13 15:12 UTC
Graded2026-08-14 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasha078c29e81254ba773fdc3ca8cb1e8e357fe2a51620a0e77a9894cad7ffa102a
Closing line-211 captured 2026-08-13 22:06 UTC
CLV delta+8.23%
Closing hashb42f272bc05db82d058bdf82e03798fb40d76c53734a70e5a06bd31c7081305a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger96.1% hashed
    981 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close58.3% closed
    981 settled picks · 58.3% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public0 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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