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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 986b4e93

Chase Burns Over 14.5 Outs Recorded

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

-180risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-180

Closing

-190

CLV

+1.92%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 94.7% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +19.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: 12dfd7)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds7
Chicago Cubs5
Winner: Cincinnati Reds · 2026-08-30
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
+1.92%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#4822
UUID07359d3a-6bc4-43fb-9888-029918e42c2c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-30 14:20 UTC
Graded2026-08-31 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash986b4e93958c15899973576cbe033c4e0ef1fd68fee98dc8e0203080bd0dbb50
Closing line-190 captured 2026-08-30 22:15 UTC
CLV delta+1.92%
Closing hashaa1f01718a73431d7a365dc79d418e1c3a19f4a71475d5fb4e52d894b018ec93

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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