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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 757ab67f

Jesús Sánchez Under 1.5 Total Bases

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

-170risk0.22u→win0.13u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-170

Closing

-190

CLV

+4.06%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +36.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Arizona Diamondbacks5
Colorado Rockies3
Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-09-23
Model Record (30d)
Picks
18
Settled
18
Hit rate
66.7%
10-5
ROI
+9.89%
+0.23u
CLV avg
+2.24%
n=14
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (18 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
+4.06%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#12763
UUID2f7eda9d-a9f7-4c11-9dd8-8c6916ce145b
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-23 15:13 UTC
Graded2026-09-24 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash757ab67f95896b7acd2253c28eb81d2b7f14643d345cfffc9346a9e3ecbd4168
Closing line-190 captured 2026-09-23 23:37 UTC
CLV delta+4.06%
Closing hash75c357db46846bea94ddb851c733f082f9aeaeec214dd43d14f3993cf37c2ae2

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.4% hashed
    1,370 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.6% closed
    1,368 settled picks · 65.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public2 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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