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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 757ab67f

Jesús Sánchez Under 1.5 Total Bases

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

-170risk0.22u→win0.13uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in06:46:41
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-170

Closing

pending

CLV

-

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +36.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +36.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #25 vs this prop (-9.9% vs league avg over 279 games)
  • Opposing starter Merrill Kelly blowing up: 9.9 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.6 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.
Model Record (30d)
Picks
21
Settled
19
Hit rate
64.7%
11-6
ROI
+6.67%
+0.16u
CLV avg
+1.90%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (19 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

Audit trail

Pick ID#12763
UUID2f7eda9d-a9f7-4c11-9dd8-8c6916ce145b
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-23 15:13 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash757ab67f95896b7acd2253c28eb81d2b7f14643d345cfffc9346a9e3ecbd4168

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger80.8% hashed
    1,308 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.9% closed
    1,288 settled picks · 63.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public20 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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