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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-25🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 54ac5d60

Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 Hits

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

-164risk0.14u→win0.09uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in07:00:19
No deep-link slips available for this pick yet.

Stake

0.14u

Odds

-164

Closing

pending

CLV

-

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 83.2% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +21.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +21.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #5 vs this prop (+13.6% vs league avg over 283 games)
  • Opposing starter Bryce Miller blowing up: 6.3 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.8 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
22
Hit rate
57.1%
12-9
ROI
-11.14%
-0.34u
CLV avg
-0.09%
n=20
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

Audit trail

Pick ID#13168
UUID5981981b-0738-4438-ac49-9abe4bdcfcee
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-25 18:07 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash54ac5d604acd578d501c37349e9731121e860fa77167ef500e57307e5b23bb3d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger80.3% hashed
    1,328 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close64.5% closed
    1,311 settled picks · 64.5% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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