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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-15🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED eec965ad

Spencer Jones Over 0.5 Hits

New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins

-175risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-175

Closing

-190

CLV

+2.96%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +16.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betrivers)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
New York Yankees8
Minnesota Twins1
Winner: New York Yankees · 2026-09-15
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
50.0%
8-8
ROI
-24.70%
-0.58u
CLV avg
+1.72%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
+2.96%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#10614
UUIDa59c0fe8-b9ef-4e0e-b7ee-8a2ee50b309e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-15 20:43 UTC
Graded2026-09-16 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hasheec965ad366c971fd9a24d380e1fddda0d357fd1620952659e1ec430fd80877f
Closing line-190 captured 2026-09-15 22:22 UTC
CLV delta+2.96%
Closing hash36eda3c402db2609cc9a1ee64ce186f9767377b4c090efaf7e16f5470344f1ff

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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