Shakira Austin Over 14.5 Points
Chicago Sky @ Washington Mystics
-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 71.4% over last 7 games vs 62.3% implied → +4.3pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 7 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +4.3pt EV vs implied
- 71.4% over last 7 games
- Bayesian-shrunk to 66.5%
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1083
UUID418bb78e-2de0-4a54-a555-e12bc4c806d4
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-01 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-03 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash176441b3ac82d45b975dab351b2f07ef82e61f2931f29d8aaf87f2aa9afa1ce5
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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