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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b0bb718b

Tyler Stephenson Over 0.5 Hits

Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-169

CLV

-0.22%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 87.1% over last 6 games vs 63.0% implied → +9.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel) (ref: 145132)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +9.6pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #18 vs this prop (-2.3% vs league avg over 275 games)
  • 87.1% over last 6 games

Line movement

-170-169+0.00 dec
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-169
1.5917
Delta
-0.22%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1087
UUIDcb5fbb9d-2f40-4600-9593-5cc57a7a950d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-01 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-02 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb0bb718b64ea45ad4c0f311bfd300b5aa362e27ad220e712e7a57659419512b4
Closing line-169 captured 2026-06-01 21:42 UTC
CLV delta-0.22%
Closing hashd2a541b3606ecc2c97c12f9ebea87e788a42e6e30331c157b84c261cee66063e

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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