Nolan Schanuel Over 0.5 Hits
Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Angels
Edge
Empirical 81.7% over last 6 games vs 63.6% implied → +7.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: 2a6a21)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Final · Grading detail
Tampa Bay Rays0
Los Angeles Angels8
Winner: Los Angeles Angels · 2026-06-13
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-190
1.5263
Delta
+2.96%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1165
UUID66bf86c6-2ee7-4f50-bc61-f8e95ea851d3
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-13 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-14 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashec63d50e8cb98f5c10ce186a6cdfad7a2821bbe4ec3d3d7ec10deba159dfd326
Closing line-190 captured 2026-06-14 00:39 UTC
CLV delta+2.96%
Closing hashf41431684bd08fd4730ff1a11c0e67973ce33451016dbbb171170e9cf3f75ed2
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Why this receipt is trustable
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