Drake Baldwin Over 0.5 Hits
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves
Edge
Empirical 82.0% over last 5 games vs 62.1% implied → +6.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers2
Atlanta Braves3
Winner: Atlanta Braves · 2026-06-19
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-161
1.6211
Delta
-0.70%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1223
UUID0343514e-eb09-4a66-a9ea-84b310a280ca
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-19 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0f0390e19abc8cf3aee2bb16b0a0031e1ac8984131482a46d49291dd979e4d5d
Closing line-161 captured 2026-06-19 21:46 UTC
CLV delta-0.70%
Closing hash4dc3c46874d8b84058f36ea5779b084fdfe6960b32921f2f5a80df78632f3774
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.9% hashed1,267 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,256 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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