Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Hits
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Edge
Empirical 99.9% over last 5 games vs 63.5% implied → +12.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
New York Mets3
Philadelphia Phillies15
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-06-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-174
1.5747
Closing
-196
1.5102
Delta
+4.27%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1253
UUIDb9f6e9e0-d426-4c10-8955-763e1c3cc6f9
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-20 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash9b69c8a7664577f842cc500ec6a62b530e1f3fbe63d24a7fab039f052155322e
Closing line-196 captured 2026-06-20 21:47 UTC
CLV delta+4.27%
Closing hashe828be6f3373ea462c163e4f6ea911329c75905e0834c5aae14c5f3cd8151ede
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Why this receipt is trustable
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