Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Total Bases
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
Edge
Empirical 99.9% over last 7 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 7 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers2
Cincinnati Reds1
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-06-22
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
+2.20%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1290
UUIDadef3a04-9522-46f3-a944-1ef266260582
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-22 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-23 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash37fe94c55544dabd6400a057385953e22924eda06e2ed3c2f4f16207f955bd1d
Closing line-175 captured 2026-06-22 21:42 UTC
CLV delta+2.20%
Closing hash5bcac7b2ebb33330ccb086a01c5d8045268bf623db442d1d1e22932feb8ca2bd
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