Spencer Steer Over 0.5 Hits
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees
Edge
Empirical 99.9% over last 7 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.6pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 7 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds0
New York Yankees5
Winner: New York Yankees · 2026-06-19
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-145
1.6897
Delta
-4.95%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1220
UUID17235f05-654c-44ae-9a34-bdc37e538e69
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-19 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1dd33e454dea650236e72f37eeb800406f19101b8a998c1d1cd645bbf13db13b
Closing line-145 captured 2026-06-19 21:36 UTC
CLV delta-4.95%
Closing hash989648822a9aafbbb10f69ef54d8a9bf2b9dfbc6c60ea36fa12c2cc310587b15
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public9 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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