Courtney Williams Over 4.5 Rebounds
Washington Mystics @ Minnesota Lynx
Edge
Empirical 78.6% over last 14 games vs 63.2% implied → +14.3pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 14 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +14.3pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (-5.3% vs league avg over 102 games)
- 78.6% over last 14 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
3
Settled
3
Hit rate
66.7%
2-1
ROI
+9.25%
+0.04u
CLV avg
+0.14%
n=3
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (3 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1273
UUID10b03920-c497-4f04-a3d6-e96fc02ccc01
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-21 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-06-22 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3a76c3f16cf5fdfd5387135010974e72237216887af3f1f3929fd496d31e5f64
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Why this receipt is trustable
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