Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 Hits
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners
Edge
Empirical 89.6% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +26.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betrivers)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +26.0pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #5 vs this prop (+11.8% vs league avg over 282 games)
- 89.6% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
24
Settled
19
Hit rate
72.2%
13-5
ROI
+14.21%
+0.37u
CLV avg
+0.26%
n=17
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (19 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#12537
UUIDecb7c94c-e79c-44a5-aa73-1639b700fd98
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-22 20:38 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc3707f847551c91b2ed34c190533ddf84ac386a6f9863a3856d2846ff1760181
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger81.1% hashed1,296 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
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