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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-13🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 99288d18

Emily Engstler Over 7.5 Points

Portland Fire @ Connecticut Sun

-174risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-174

Closing

-173

CLV

-0.21%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 63.5% implied → +9.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +9.8pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (-5.0% vs league avg over 87 games)
  • 73.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-174-173+0.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
22
Hit rate
63.6%
14-8
ROI
-0.21%
-0.01u
CLV avg
+0.88%
n=22
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-174
1.5747
Closing
-173
1.5780
Delta
-0.21%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1411
UUIDaa6a8906-bfb4-4084-89ed-d7253b705a41
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-13 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 14:59 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash99288d18414c7ae3d8a62ef9d039806626811b514c1808cf2c8a3cfd89f809d4
Closing line-173 captured 2026-07-14 13:47 UTC
CLV delta-0.21%
Closing hash1770ea7d8e9b1f0d16f739edd5bd8fe3b3ffa09c700df1d1796057ba0e034791

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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