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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-17🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6f70c509

DeWanna Bonner Over 3.5 Rebounds

Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream

-169risk0.21u→win0.12u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.21u

Odds

-169

Closing

-183

CLV

+2.93%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 62.8% implied → +30.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +30.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (-7.4% vs league avg over 83 games)
  • 93.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-169-183-0.05 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
50.0%
8-8
ROI
-24.70%
-0.58u
CLV avg
+1.72%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-169
1.5917
Closing
-183
1.5464
Delta
+2.93%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#11121
UUID2699a418-709b-4589-ab14-d732e2b6a127
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-17 21:19 UTC
Graded2026-09-18 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6f70c50901226bf6f41d3135c1736b6e0d72f5eed72dc56efc93f87a7abe1ec8
Closing line-183 captured 2026-09-17 22:07 UTC
CLV delta+2.93%
Closing hashfb663f27f431bf5187c6611b4157111fee9fa5336537a7da0f25ca1f8ef4081c

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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