Chase Burns Under 2.5 pitcher_earned_runs
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds (Game 1)
-185risk0.1u→win0.05u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 64.9% implied → +13.0pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +13.0pt EV vs implied
- 86.7% over last 15 games
- Bayesian-shrunk to 72.9%
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1587
UUID59dbecda-11f4-42b3-a555-25942f18e60f
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-07-28 17:10 UTC
Graded2026-07-29 00:50 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824490:2026-07-28T17:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc4814981d3574ebc57e23bb310aa231648ec3e81c2333ad9e6e0d32a36809e36
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Why this receipt is trustable
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