Christian Yelich Under 1.5 Total Bases
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels
Edge
Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +19.7pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
Milwaukee Brewers6
Los Angeles Angels2
Winner: Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-07-31
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1686
UUID6ae317ea-cff4-4535-b6fb-061293718da2
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-31 20:15 UTC
Graded2026-08-01 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash0bebeaaa2cf1b64c73de37e54bc9492df1645e550fcdb9459d03959ee3d40edc
Closing line-180 captured 2026-08-01 00:14 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashacb28baf7c44725ea415671306755fd31dca800d9944398bd81cf6edcd0a9128
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