Ty France Over 0.5 Hits
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres
Edge
Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +15.4pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Final · Grading detail
San Francisco Giants5
San Diego Padres6
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-08-01
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-235
1.4255
Closing
-235
1.4255
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1700
UUID9c3c5ad1-6b2b-4dd5-9ad5-72d258307365
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-01 15:14 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash630bb784c4bce528f17d4485c2c27f55a91dff3afac57bda5f48437524c362a9
Closing line-235 captured 2026-08-01 23:22 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash63775e04368e35671f037fdbdd9c26d8b747c40156e7c787a5322cdeea57cee9
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger78.0% hashed1,378 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
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