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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 630bb784

Ty France Over 0.5 Hits

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

-235risk0.1u→win0.04u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-235

Closing

-235

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +15.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
San Francisco Giants5
San Diego Padres6
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-08-01
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-235
1.4255
Closing
-235
1.4255
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1700
UUID9c3c5ad1-6b2b-4dd5-9ad5-72d258307365
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-01 15:14 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash630bb784c4bce528f17d4485c2c27f55a91dff3afac57bda5f48437524c362a9
Closing line-235 captured 2026-08-01 23:22 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash63775e04368e35671f037fdbdd9c26d8b747c40156e7c787a5322cdeea57cee9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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