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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-04🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f610743a

Isabelle Harrison Over 7.5 Points

TOR Tempo @ Golden State Valkyries

-163risk0.16u→win0.1u
LOSS

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-163

Closing

-130

CLV

-8.80%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 62.0% implied → +24.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings) (ref: 5c0f9e)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +24.7pt EV vs implied
  • 86.7% over last 15 games
  • Bayesian-shrunk to 86.7%

Line movement

-163-130+0.16 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
50.0%
8-8
ROI
-24.70%
-0.58u
CLV avg
+1.72%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-163
1.6135
Closing
-130
1.7692
Delta
-8.80%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1733
UUID71d18204-1732-4e5c-b0af-3f5066952b68
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-04 20:37 UTC
Graded2026-08-05 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf610743a605b4d58075440ee8b10277a3a220e5883718a5cbebe8dfe6c373103
Closing line-130 captured 2026-08-05 00:49 UTC
CLV delta-8.80%
Closing hash2577c489381d68743d5612e6bb63071c5ae38e146ca86248b58de2fff4f17a47

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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