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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-21🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 3c252e76

Royce Lewis Over 0.5 Hits

Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres

-176risk0.11u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-176

Closing

-185

CLV

+1.79%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 63.8% implied → +16.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Minnesota Twins2
San Diego Padres6
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-08-21
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
43.8%
7-9
ROI
-32.75%
-0.78u
CLV avg
+1.46%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-176
1.5682
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+1.79%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1817
UUID24156d2b-d8a6-440c-900e-46a97c9fd693
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-21 18:13 UTC
Graded2026-08-22 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3c252e765d3e960fb87808f7c4b05722cfcc2e879f0732199ac32915a16d7308
Closing line-185 captured 2026-08-22 00:10 UTC
CLV delta+1.79%
Closing hashf0a5e401d297e55f0ff86d3ec858c0015a2573a35204df1a7217d76fdb7c7223

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.5% hashed
    1,368 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.6% closed
    1,365 settled picks · 65.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public3 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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