mlbMoneyline.2026-05-01
Chicago Cubs ML
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
Why we made this pick
EDGEPre-tip moneyline favorite captured at fire time (ESPN DraftKings)
SIGNALLineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
CONTEXTMLB Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
RISKsharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
CLV math
Posted
-163
1.6135
Closing
-149
1.6711
Delta
-3.45%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#185
UUID6dad20ab-1ae5-408b-bb5b-1576703160f1
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-01 17:05 UTC
Gradedpending
Lineup confirmmlb:824686:2026-05-01T18:20:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash24e7a2e3672765db998d7735ed8b9be0b5ce9f108f99e3be2e14dc053ba8c02e
Closing line-149 captured 2026-05-01 18:21 UTC
CLV delta-3.45%
Closing hashc0e76686049775fc606e8ff7994d7f0513d2dc31b90dc3ee0835fa189b9ac3e9
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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