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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 148cf104

Jose Fernandez Under 1.5 Total Bases

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

-164risk0.22u→win0.13uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in01:42:13

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-164

Closing

pending

CLV

-

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +36.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (caesars)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +36.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #2 vs this prop (+23.3% vs league avg over 294 games)
  • Opposing starter Kyle Freeland blowing up: 8.3 ERA over last 3 starts at 4.3 IP/start. Strong lift for batter overs.
Model Record (30d)
Picks
19
Settled
17
Hit rate
60.0%
9-6
ROI
-2.87%
-0.06u
CLV avg
+2.48%
n=14
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (17 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

Audit trail

Pick ID#12533
UUIDb46ec3af-dff0-4fe3-abe3-d6679810ac3c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-22 20:38 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash148cf104fcc771feac39801f2f66adadbb36a924abd84713e72631b9baadb3fb

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger81.1% hashed
    1,296 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.1% closed
    1,263 settled picks · 63.1% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public33 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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