Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-09-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 671e1244

Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Hits

NY Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-175risk0.16u→win0.09u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-175

Closing

-209

CLV

+6.29%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +23.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
New York Yankees3
Arizona Diamondbacks5
Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-09-19
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
50.0%
8-8
ROI
-24.70%
-0.58u
CLV avg
+1.72%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-209
1.4785
Delta
+6.29%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#11541
UUID3b3a9e82-c2f0-4bf2-9542-03cd1aa3751a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-09-19 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-09-20 03:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash671e1244897399dc640cdf1f2b210ab4d70629e4859e35ded240778b995d291e
Closing line-209 captured 2026-09-19 22:52 UTC
CLV delta+6.29%
Closing hash1ba7e95770df05e20686ab7861243065177ec09d82c5d71b3e839004e5e90316

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801