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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-31🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e12308d0

Kelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points

Name: NuroPicks
Availability: InStock
Author: NuroPicks LLC

Indiana Fever @ Portland Fire

-242risk0.19u→win0.08u

WIN

ESPN box score →

Stake

0.19u

Odds

-242

Closing

-217

CLV

-3.26%

Source

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time

Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 70.8% implied → +22.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

⊞Game context

Context signals

+22.6pt EV vs implied
Opp ranks #7 vs this prop (+4.8% vs league avg over 86 games)
93.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-242-217+0.05 dec

◯Model Record (30d)

prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window

Picks

23

Settled

23

Hit rate

60.9%

14-9

ROI

-4.96%

-0.17u

CLV avg

+0.96%

n=23

Last 20 settled · cumulative units

ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.

◢Related Picks (15)

Same team (7d)

LKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1702026-08-16 WKayla McBride Over 14.5 Points@ -1722026-08-12 WKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1782026-08-11 WKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1752026-08-08 LKelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM@ -1792026-08-06 WKelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points@ -1922026-08-02 LNneka Ogwumike Over 2.5 Assists@ -2192026-08-02 WChelsea Gray Over 5.5 Assists@ -2172026-07-28 WKelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points@ -2312026-07-28 LAliyah Boston Over 7.5 Rebounds@ -1812026-07-18

Same model

LT.J. Rumfield Over 0.5 Hits@ -1642026-09-09 LRafael Devers Over 0.5 Total Bases@ -1672026-09-08 WCal Raleigh Over 0.5 Hits@ -1672026-09-08 LLawrence Butler Over 0.5 Hits@ -1702026-09-08 WHéctor Rodríguez Over 0.5 Hits@ -1762026-09-07

CLV math

Posted

-242

1.4132

Closing

-217

1.4608

Delta

-3.26%

posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1684

UUID23245060-b525-4124-8aca-5d3b164b5ee4

Surfaceprop-slate-daily

Posted2026-07-31 20:15 UTC

Graded2026-08-01 05:05 UTC

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hashe12308d0c014d1907476be5e8f072bbdc28e91cffce3f3b2e92d1fd64775c3cf

Closing line-217 captured 2026-08-01 00:44 UTC

CLV delta-3.26%

Closing hash5d5a57364b45dabd65b57b068d34d86fac2084e6f5095c73a5863b2236288f71

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Why this receipt is trustable

Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
Graded against close62.0% closed
1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
Every pick public14 pending
Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.

Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801