Braxton Ashcraft Over 3.5 Strikeouts
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
-285risk0.1u→win0.04u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 95.5% over last 5 games vs 74.0% implied → +7.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +7.2pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #27 vs this prop (-11.6% vs league avg over 292 games)
- Outdoor conditions at Oracle Park: 14 mph wind blowing OUT (WSW): ball carries, HR-friendly.
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#637
UUID2bdef8ce-7cb5-49df-81e5-49582a285c86
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:49 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 04:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash277372f4cd2c7336a243b289c911ab5cd44299b8ecc236c2999755d9a9edbe6d
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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