Braxton Ashcraft Over 3.5 Strikeouts
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
-285
WIN
Edge
Empirical 95.5% over last 5 games vs 74.0% implied → +7.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Game context
Context signals
- +7.2pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #27 vs this prop (-11.6% vs league avg over 292 games)
- Outdoor conditions at Oracle Park: 14 mph wind blowing OUT (WSW): ball carries, HR-friendly.
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
66
Settled
66
Hit rate
54.0%
34-29
ROI
-15.01%
-1.09u
CLV avg
+0.42%
n=48
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Audit trail
Pick ID#637
UUID2bdef8ce-7cb5-49df-81e5-49582a285c86
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:49 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 04:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash277372f4cd2c7336a243b289c911ab5cd44299b8ecc236c2999755d9a9edbe6d
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