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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 668d2460

Pauline Astier Over 2.5 Assists

New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-122

CLV

-11.74%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +11.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: e2fb21)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +11.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #9 vs this prop (-2.0% vs league avg over 120 games)
  • 73.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-165-122+0.21 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-122
1.8197
Delta
-11.74%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1303
UUID3f91f7f1-c609-416d-b5de-e007af50b724
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-23 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-24 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash668d246065adecb94c9b5e8e35247276f018770e6bca71462a0539306aee128c
Closing line-122 captured 2026-06-24 00:36 UTC
CLV delta-11.74%
Closing hashb2fb1eed1719781b8f1a2b1ac3d6186a52ca44ffb66a393c57d7b2262b5c3886

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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