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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 891b385e

Kaelen Culpepper Over 0.5 Hits

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

-170risk0.15u→win0.09uPENDINGESPN box score →
first pitch in46:00
Bet onRVRS

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-170

Closing

-164

CLV

-1.34%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 84.9% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +22.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +22.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #6 vs this prop (+8.1% vs league avg over 289 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Target Field: 10 mph wind blowing IN (ESE): ball suppressed, fade HR overs.

Line movement

-170-164+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
25
Settled
24
Hit rate
59.1%
13-9
ROI
-5.19%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.10%
n=21
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (24 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-164
1.6098
Delta
-1.34%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#4821
UUIDb938452a-359c-4ced-9b65-73161d33e76b
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-30 14:20 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash891b385ef5fa1ccc763f2562810034aea3c4eb2b621b7ef8dac6fe4c3fdfb469
Closing line-164 captured 2026-08-30 16:53 UTC
CLV delta-1.34%
Closing hash39580769f6a63bb4a1a4df0a5fbe60628078d040afbc33c68fa4094efb685362

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger92.8% hashed
    1,030 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close59.2% closed
    1,019 settled picks · 59.2% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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