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mlsMoneyline.2026-05-09💎Elite◆◆◆◇◇Nuro Edge 6.0LOCKED 00f51deb

Chicago Fire ML

New York Red Bulls @ Chicago Fire

-200risk1u→win0.5u
LOSS

Stake

1u

Odds

-200

Closing

-195

CLV

-0.85%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betrivers)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLS Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

Game context

Context signals

  • 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Chicago Fire priced at **66.7% implied** to win — book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
  • 📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ BETRIVERS -200 ➋ BETMGM -200 ➌ DRAFTKINGS -215

Line movement

-200-195+0.01 dec
Related Picks (12)

CLV math

Posted
-200
1.5000
Closing
-195
1.5128
Delta
-0.85%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#596
UUID4128a86b-2df6-4940-aa09-a9c0abed2401
Surfacesharp_degraded:MLS
Posted2026-05-09 18:00 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 15:27 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash00f51debf7a27503816dea0d11b544f3c83a647e0fcbf9a6a9c511341510e027
Closing line-195 captured 2026-05-09 18:30 UTC
CLV delta-0.85%
Closing hash2d0bf2adde9e1c23d9069e8de2b110129267966cb7a7cb6bc3b37e39fcf0390a

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger95.6% hashed
    990 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close58.4% closed
    986 settled picks · 58.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public4 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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