Chicago Fire -0.25
New York Red Bulls @ Chicago Fire
-278PENDING
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 73.5% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLS alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung (ref: 068c9b)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
CLV math
Posted
-278
1.3597
Closing
+110
2.1000
Delta
-35.25%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#597
UUIDd6a3ba9e-d3d8-4909-822c-50ecdb7668a3
Surfacesharp_degraded:MLS
Posted2026-05-09 18:00 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8682f4e09059e66dc70bb98c1fb3e21a40d4c36dc8c9aec1a205b7b71d7799a5
Closing line+110 captured 2026-05-09 18:30 UTC
CLV delta-35.25%
Closing hasha4131f4685b83a5617f369884875b32477261f1ceee7f6490c232662e2ab90fb
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