Over 2.5
New York Red Bulls @ Chicago Fire
-300PENDING
Edge
Friendly alt over at 75.0% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLS alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
CLV math
Posted
-300
1.3333
Closing
-117
1.8547
Delta
-28.11%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#598
UUID837f41ef-bd10-4076-93fa-dfbd4e9e7b30
Surfacesharp_degraded:MLS
Posted2026-05-09 18:00 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash5ab27f3db8bf13aaafeab27827f3c336b5f8e7a9d4ddf1287a447e036e859236
Closing line-117 captured 2026-05-09 18:30 UTC
CLV delta-28.11%
Closing hash8e07905b16998f9e1fd8a46d1470f944c9e9ad8e239aa9b9431d8ea4d444c525
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