Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-19🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED bd8d2394

Taylor Ward Over 0.5 Hits

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers

-165risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-165

Closing

-164

CLV

-0.23%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +17.7pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Baltimore Orioles5
Los Angeles Dodgers6
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-06-19
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallbackTrailing 30-day window
Picks
5
Settled
5
Hit rate
60.0%
3-2
ROI
+1.24%
+0.01u
CLV avg
+2.08%
n=5
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (5 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-164
1.6098
Delta
-0.23%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1229
UUID5c406abe-7222-4a94-9340-b3da213efcb4
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-19 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashbd8d23948b50c011ce5e660b53540bb0b328627447e28e57cdb1c618cf7608d8
Closing line-164 captured 2026-06-20 00:41 UTC
CLV delta-0.23%
Closing hash89e352aa82fda9f0c55df64761617c2f929bfb7bd75e88754f9f059b8b5e7a5e

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801