Over 7.5
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Edge
Friendly alt over at 58.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (58.3% vs 63.6%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox3
Detroit Tigers4
Winner: Detroit Tigers · 2026-06-19
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-140
1.7143
Closing
-118
1.8475
Delta
-7.21%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1236
UUID2072b009-afea-451a-b340-7b82ffa9c629
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-19 21:26 UTC
Graded2026-06-20 01:20 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824264:2026-06-19T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash3a67e3325a5f72dc570d475421a9deae663badf6e71a25a2865a0740f23bc0ef
Closing line-118 captured 2026-06-19 22:42 UTC
CLV delta-7.21%
Closing hasha7c39f553aeae4e05cb0af02460a36eaf88912d9819195424ec5ae2259a9fa6c
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.6% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public9 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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