Over 7.5
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Edge
Friendly alt over at 58.3% implied (target 62%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (58.3% vs 63.6%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Game context
Context signals
- 🌬️ Outdoor conditions at Comerica Park: 14 mph wind blowing OUT (WNW): ball carries, HR-friendly; precip risk: mostly cloudy then slight chance rain showers.
Line movement
-140-118+0.13 decModel Record (30d)
sharp-stub-v0-alt-totalTrailing 30-day window
Picks
1
Settled
0
Hit rate
—
ROI
—
CLV avg
—
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
CLV math
Posted
-140
1.7143
Closing
-118
1.8475
Delta
-7.21%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#1236
UUID2072b009-afea-451a-b340-7b82ffa9c629
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-06-19 21:26 UTC
Gradedpending
Lineup confirmmlb:824264:2026-06-19T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger100% hashed1,038 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close39.7% closed1,014 settled picks · 39.7% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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