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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED db2cc004

Lars Nootbaar Under 1.5 Total Bases

Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks

-180risk0.22u→win0.12u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-180

Closing

-160

CLV

-4.27%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +35.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada) (ref: cfbc7f)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Cincinnati Reds11
Arizona Diamondbacks5
Winner: Cincinnati Reds · 2026-08-22
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-4.27%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1821
UUID5e25c1e5-3065-4b24-a6ea-9d48610f277a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-22 15:41 UTC
Graded2026-08-23 03:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashdb2cc0048cb62d6dace8eac07cfbffafcf7b1591b2b8a7e476320c28b0760995
Closing line-160 captured 2026-08-22 22:51 UTC
CLV delta-4.27%
Closing hash7d25a70b6fe74868c9b0ddd05890b008e8293c475e07f10406cdb5e41d73a184

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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