Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 Hits
Cincinnati Reds @ CHI White Sox
-175risk0.16u→win0.09u
LOSS
Edge
Empirical 87.5% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +23.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30
Game context
Context signals
- +23.9pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #21 vs this prop (-6.8% vs league avg over 186 games)
- 87.5% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
21
Settled
21
Hit rate
52.6%
10-9
ROI
-15.28%
-0.44u
CLV avg
+0.90%
n=18
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (21 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1768
UUID5e9a1b3d-b134-4bd0-b314-a34eb6970c29
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-12 15:42 UTC
Graded2026-08-13 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashcd1717a90bd03bd6a206cd0152e951bd136c3bae8232cb81f4a7136993569d9d
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger96.1% hashed981 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close58.3% closed981 settled picks · 58.3% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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