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ufcMoneyline.2026-05-09🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED d0de699b

Jose Ochoa ML

Jose Ochoa @ Clayton Carpenter

-170risk1u→win0.59u
WIN

Stake

1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-180

CLV

+2.10%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betonlineag)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model (ref: 100edd)

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

Game context

Context signals

  • 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Jose Ochoa priced at **63.0% implied** to win — book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
  • 📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ BOVADA -172 ➋ DRAFTKINGS -175 ➌ FANDUEL -180
  • 🥊 **Fighter stats** • Jose Ochoa · **8-2-0**: 67" / 67" reach / 25y / 125lb _"Kalzifer"_ • Clayton Carpenter · **8-2-0**: 66" / 66" reach / 29y / 126lb

Line movement

-170-180-0.03 dec
Related Picks (10)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-180
1.5556
Delta
+2.10%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#610
UUID61a4f0a1-4dae-4ca1-a221-186943c3eabb
Surfacesharp_degraded:UFC
Posted2026-05-09 20:55 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 15:27 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd0de699ba808993843c198360e33e92f6638e930f13e56e7450b47df30ba668a
Closing line-180 captured 2026-05-09 21:16 UTC
CLV delta+2.10%
Closing hashefe795c718ec7407bad84f6bf5b87749a55321b2ceb686b0fe91ef51cbb809ee

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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