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ufcMoneyline.2026-05-09◆◆◆◇◇Nuro Edge 6.0LOCKED c3c7d4df

Jared Gordon ML

Name: NuroPicks
Availability: InStock
Author: NuroPicks LLC

Jim Miller @ Jared Gordon

-250risk1u→win0.4u

LOSS

Stake

Odds

-250

Closing

-260

CLV

+1.11%

Source

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time

Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betmgm)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

⊞Game context

Context signals

🎯 **Why this favorite?** Jared Gordon priced at **71.4% implied** to win — book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ BETMGM -250 ➋ DRAFTKINGS -258 ➌ BOVADA -260
🥊 **Fighter stats** • Jared Gordon · **21-8-0**: 69" / 68" reach / 37y / 156lb _"Flash"_ • Jim Miller · **38-19-0**: 68" / 71" reach / 42y / 155lb _"A-10"_ 📏 Jim Miller owns a 3.0" reach edge — striker game tilts their way ⏳ Jared Gordon is 5y younger; durability gap above 32+ 🧠 Jim Miller carries +28 pro fights at 67% win rate — experience edge under deep-water pressure

Line movement

-250-260-0.02 dec

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Same model

VTom Wright ML@ -1552026-06-20 VKongthoranee Sor Sommai ML@ -1452026-06-26 VNiko Samsonidse ML@ -1302026-06-20 VJake Woodley ML@ -1702026-06-20 WCHI White Sox ML@ -1562026-07-12

CLV math

Posted

-250

1.4000

Closing

-260

1.3846

Delta

+1.11%

posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#641

UUID017f5d63-c1a7-42af-be26-1d659143877b

Surfacesharp_degraded:UFC

Posted2026-05-09 22:55 UTC

Graded2026-05-22 15:27 UTC

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hashc3c7d4dfff9d1ffbdde6dcdfabc26d71d47bcd6eecb085b600af8003f6e082f5

Closing line-260 captured 2026-05-09 23:17 UTC

CLV delta+1.11%

Closing hash54e335d1b575aaf362e3887d18f45240fc33d54c1ba414cd28a11be74e0ae2b6

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Why this receipt is trustable

Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
Graded against close63.6% closed
1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
Every pick public9 pending
Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.

Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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