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ufcMoneyline.2026-05-09🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED db9ffe7f

Pat Sabatini ML

William Gomis @ Pat Sabatini

-162risk1u→win0.62u
WIN

Stake

1u

Odds

-162

Closing

-170

CLV

+1.83%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betonlineag)

Signal

Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model (ref: 366cf9)

Risk

sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.

Game context

Context signals

  • 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Pat Sabatini priced at **61.8% implied** to win — book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
  • 📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ BETMGM -170 ➋ DRAFTKINGS -170 ➌ BOVADA -170
  • 🥊 **Fighter stats** • Pat Sabatini · **21-5-0**: 68" / 70" reach / 35y / 145lb • William Gomis · **15-3-0**: 72" / 73" reach / 28y / 145lb _"The Jaguar"_ 📏 William Gomis owns a 3.0" reach edge — striker game tilts their way ⏳ William Gomis is 7y younger; durability gap above 32+ 🧠 Pat Sabatini carries +8 pro fights — experience edge under deep-water pressure

Line movement

-162-170-0.03 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-162
1.6173
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
+1.83%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#619
UUID9df8e5eb-627b-4010-8a9c-7ca8b48a0f43
Surfacesharp_degraded:UFC
Posted2026-05-09 21:55 UTC
Graded2026-05-22 15:27 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashdb9ffe7f19b9510d368f1e8da5730723241b96e519b8950c8e5fdfb5adc73da3
Closing line-170 captured 2026-05-09 22:15 UTC
CLV delta+1.83%
Closing hash0a95e73195a6846285ca67c6e4b48e3843f216842f7c4853714e34bdc2cce128

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,252 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.6% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public9 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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