Braxton Ashcraft Over 3.5 Strikeouts
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Francisco Giants
-285PENDING
Edge
Empirical 95.5% over last 5 games vs 74.0% implied → +7.2pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 5 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Audit trail
Pick ID#637
UUID2bdef8ce-7cb5-49df-81e5-49582a285c86
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:49 UTC
Gradedpending
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash277372f4cd2c7336a243b289c911ab5cd44299b8ecc236c2999755d9a9edbe6d
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