Ateba Gautier ML
Ozzy Diaz @ Ateba Gautier
Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: draftkings)
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Game context
Context signals
- 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Ateba Gautier priced at **91.7% implied** to win — book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
- 📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ DRAFTKINGS -1100 ➋ BOVADA -1100 ➌ BETMGM -1200
- 🥊 **Fighter stats** • Ateba Gautier · **10-1-0**: 76" / 81" reach / 24y / 185lb _"The Storm"_ • Ozzy Diaz · **10-3-0**: 76" / 79" reach / 35y / 186lb _"One Hit"_ 📏 Ateba Gautier owns a 2.0" reach edge — striker game tilts their way ⏳ Ateba Gautier is 11y younger; durability gap above 32+
Line movement
-1100-1200-0.01 decRelated Picks (10)
Same slate
Same model
CLV math
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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