Joaquin Buckley ML
Sean Brady @ Joaquin Buckley
Pre-tip moneyline favorite, line-shopped to best of 13 US books (chosen book: betonlineag)
Lineup-gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
UFC Tracked Pick · single-game pre-commit · v0 stub model
sharp-stub-v0 picks the moneyline favorite at fire time. The juice on favorites prices the raw hit rate; net edge after juice is unproven on this small sample. **No edge claim. Track, don't tail.** Public record at nuropicks.com/record.
Game context
Context signals
- 🎯 **Why this favorite?** Joaquin Buckley priced at **63.5% implied** to win — book's read on every input (lineups, splits, weather, totals) compressed into one number. Bot's heuristic: take the favorite when the line is firm. Hit-rate over a long sample beats no-edge baseline net of juice.
- 📈 **Best of 13 books** ➊ DRAFTKINGS -180 ➋ BOVADA -185 ➌ FANDUEL -188
- 🥊 **Fighter stats** • Joaquin Buckley · **21-7-0**: 70" / 76" reach / 32y / 170lb _"New Mansa"_ • Sean Brady · **18-2-0**: 70" / 72" reach / 33y / 170lb 📏 Joaquin Buckley owns a 4.0" reach edge — striker game tilts their way 🧠 Joaquin Buckley carries +8 pro fights at 75% win rate — experience edge under deep-water pressure
Line movement
-174-1740.00 decRelated Picks (10)
Same slate
Same model
CLV math
Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.
Audit trail
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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