Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 Assists
Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury
-320risk1u→win0.31u
WIN
Edge
Friendly alt prop at 76.2% implied (target 70%). Low-sample fallback.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side friendly rung (fanduel) (ref: 0dc470)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Game context
Context signals
- Opp ranks #17 vs this prop (-20.6% vs league avg over 54 games)
- Friendly alt rung at 70% target (low-sample fallback)
- 3 games in 4 nights. Compressed schedule depresses minutes + accuracy.
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#679
UUID45d46f83-d8eb-4970-adbe-503d770fe83e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-11 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-05-13 04:42 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd54cdc54c4a1862f9c820252a45c158a9aa6062f7ae25cac3b5375b998329c12
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