Pauline Astier Over 3.5 Assists
New York Liberty @ Portland Fire
-250risk1u→win0.4u
LOSS
Edge
Friendly alt prop at 71.4% implied (target 70%). Low-sample fallback.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side friendly rung (betrivers)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Game context
Context signals
- Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (-3.0% vs league avg over 39 games)
- Friendly alt rung at 70% target (low-sample fallback)
- Opp plays fast: pace +1.52σ vs league (131.3 counting/g over 3g). More possessions → over lift.
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#680
UUID5cd117bd-7dc8-43de-89b2-23ef79803078
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-11 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-05-13 04:42 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash342f59f5211f1b48b96efdeafbaf9a8c811a8c2c072bb8099053ddad19eceec1
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Why this receipt is trustable
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