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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-11🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 84a06ced

Nneka Ogwumike Over 14.5 Points

Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks

-167risk0.12u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-167

Closing

-164

CLV

-0.68%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.5% implied → +17.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.5pt EV vs implied
  • 80.0% over last 15 games
  • Vegas total 179.5 (WNBA avg 165; high-scoring environment).

Line movement

-167-164+0.01 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
16
Settled
16
Hit rate
43.8%
7-9
ROI
-32.75%
-0.78u
CLV avg
+1.46%
n=16
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (16 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)

CLV math

Posted
-167
1.5988
Closing
-164
1.6098
Delta
-0.68%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1766
UUIDbfced484-ab0f-4092-9e2d-4c2f2258bfa7
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-11 21:30 UTC
Graded2026-08-12 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash84a06ced02e3bdf7e574284793bcc484590dc2992f9ac08e6f41ad33742db391
Closing line-164 captured 2026-08-12 00:36 UTC
CLV delta-0.68%
Closing hash06e98e87486c5d45ea9b87fb970d4d614573e19efd5f31a1ef4cbec4bbf3c1a7

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger78.5% hashed
    1,368 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close65.6% closed
    1,365 settled picks · 65.6% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public3 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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