Olivia Miles Over 7.5 Points
Atlanta Dream @ Minnesota Lynx
-528risk1u→win0.19u
WIN
Edge
Friendly alt prop at 84.1% implied (target 70%). Low-sample fallback.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side friendly rung (draftkings)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Game context
Context signals
- Opp ranks #17 vs this prop (-28.4% vs league avg over 45 games)
- Friendly alt rung at 70% target (low-sample fallback)
- Opp plays fast: pace +1.82σ vs league (135.5 counting/g over 4g). More possessions → over lift.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#631
UUIDc5e99d9f-ba32-4729-a0c5-0e716565579e
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:46 UTC
Graded2026-05-10 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash22502333d2861813b0008bef4291a4479e5d47b42a85750267f0636f31a7b6ef
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Why this receipt is trustable
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