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wnbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1870cc05

Kelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points

Indiana Fever @ Minnesota Lynx

-192risk0.2u→win0.1u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.2u

Odds

-192

Closing

-192

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 65.8% implied → +27.6pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

WNBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +27.6pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #6 vs this prop (+4.3% vs league avg over 96 games)
  • 93.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-192-1920.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-192
1.5208
Closing
-192
1.5208
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1709
UUID6c3e385a-fe08-4a8a-a9ee-09b1885784c6
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-02 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-02 20:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1870cc05fa4670c0f52a695468b4bc0454200cae45aebeb59bff20f9736a65d6
Closing line-192 captured 2026-08-02 15:37 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hash3ca1e18168ee6690e588b5706ab81e43aa07178624756fcc00589de6a29e5f4e

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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